The Cold War between the Western Alliance (USA, Russia, and France drove EU) and Red China is getting dimensions of a major confrontation. However, this war has limits and all belligerent parties are aware of that. All involved, directly or indirectly, have a tacit common red line none will cross and pass to a “Hot War”. However, there is a remote probability that the looser instead of a “surrender” to the new status quo, may opt for using his nukes. This will mean the end of planet earth as all will release their arsenal, nukes, dirty bombs, and biological weapons, against each other. Especially if the potential loser is Red China where people is just numbers while in the West, more in Russia, less in Europe and somewhere in the between for Americans, people are humans. However, this is a probability falling within the limits of the statistical error, thus, highly improbable.
Therefore, it is likely that the Cold War, in the foreseeable future, will never escalate to Hot yet will never end. It will be a war of the free against slavery, it is highly likely that it will result to the isolation of China from the free world but will never end.
As the Cold War has been already launched and there is no way of returning to the status quo ante, the forthcoming isolation of China, at the end of the day is highly likely. Indeed, there is no other alternative, the more so that it is a win-win, for both parties. The more so that in this war there will be no provocative acts but only wooden language exercises.
China attempted to dominate the world with a typical communist 50-year plan. Commercial penetration at all levels all over, using any and all means, legal or illegal, moral or not, offering to the medium-lower western classes, cheap consumer plastics. The dominion over the western consumer markets has been followed by the creation of economic dependence in a growing number of countries, with state-to-state loans. So far, the communist plan worked as it is still in the phase of the “carrot”. When the next phase, that of the “stick” appeared on the horizon, that was the beginning of appointing of pro-China officials in economically dependent countries in an attempt of the eventual domination of the Western world, the real intentions of China unveiled and concern among western leaders surfaced.
First to visualize such prospect was the US President Donald Trump who understood the intentions of China and decided to fight the Chinese plans initiating actions for its containment. Opposite to that Trump found the industrial establishment of the US and Europe which profits because of having relocated its industrial base in China. The Wall Street sponsored attempt of the Democratic party to impeach Trump failed but delayed the efforts of Trump to contain China. Now the real battles have been postponed for after the November US election, yet the war has been declared, Russians and Europeans with the French leading are in support of Trump and, due to the pandemic, the war will continue in full escalation after the US election, regardless of results.
At this brief interval, between now and November, Americans are concentrating their attention in the US election while China is consolidating its forces to be ready for the upcoming confrontation.
For sure the Cold War will continue and will not end, at least in the foreseeable future. It will be a propaganda war and it is likely that will deprive China from its assets abroad, such as properties and various securities (treasury bonds and other sovereign debt bonds) through staged Court cases in absentia, for crimes against humanity. This is something that both parties have in mind, as a possibility.
The only Chinese way to address the matter will be hot war but this should rather be excluded. Indeed, the Chinese communist leaders care only to maintain power as it is the only way for them to survive physically because they are prisoners of the positions they hold.
In this context, both sides are in favor of the perpetuation of the new Cold War. Westerners because after a period of anomaly, will develop their economies in fair competition terms and without the burden of the debts to China which will be written off by the various countries as compensation of the virus damages. It will also give to NATO reason to exit and expand while will reactivate and enlarge the western military industry creating millions of new jobs.
China will be eventually satisfied as the power structure in Peking will not be upset and the Chinese Communist party will rule domestically, isolated from the outside world, stronger and more powerful than ever. In this context, and if this happens it will occur before the US Presidential election, China will clean once and for all open “domestic” issues by annexing to mainland China through simple military drills, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. As the Western Alliance, it will observe events from a safe distance, hypocritically interpreting them as the Peking intra-China settlements.
Such a potential development will secure China the total control of its domestic front and will gill give to Peking the excuse to celebrate new victories of the Red Army thus enhance nationalism which it will need in the upcoming international isolation. At the same time it will provide to the Western Alliance additional moral and legal arguments, for the total international isolation of China.
As to the United Nations, it seems that in this crisis will prove useless, as will have no role in the new making. Therefore, its abolition will be a matter of time. As to the UN building in lower Manhattan, it is likely to become, with summary procedures, the headquarters of the new Western Alliance, now in the making.